Darren Olivier
In August one of the South African Air Force’s C-130BZ Hercules transporters, serial 409, arrived at Marshall Aerospace in Cambridge, UK, to begin an 18 month major servicing and rectification process.
This will kick off a six year upgrade and major servicing programme, enabled by an initial R1 billion allocation from Treasury, but which should eventually cost around R4 billion, to improve the fleet’s availability and make it compliant with current airspace regulations.
By FY2028/29 the programme should result in average fleet availability going up to three or four aircraft on a sustainable basis, versus the one to two possible now.
Not all of the initial R1 billion will go to Marshall; about half the amount has been allocated for long overdue engine overhauls, spares acquisitions, and support contract elements. The programme will include an upgrade to a new ADS-B Out compatible transponder and a replacement of the Secondary Flight Display (SFD).
Marshall will use 409 as the test aircraft for the transponder upgrade and new SFD so as to obtain certification for the new baseline. The SAAF C-130BZs are on a custom baseline after the fleet’s avionics upgrades in the 2000s and are certified by the Directorate System Integrity, so Marshall will need to both certify the updated baseline with them while verifying that the updated transponder is compliant with ADS-B Out requirements once installed.
Once 409 is complete, 405 will make the journey north for its own upgrade and major servicing and Marshall will ship modification kits to Denel, which will install them on the other four aircraft during major servicing carried out locally at their facilities.
It has not been without controversy, however. An MP from the opposition Democratic Alliance whose portfolio includes Denel which traditionally performs major servicing on the SAAF’s C-130BZs, issued a blistering press release demanding that the contract be cancelled. It’s unclear what he based his information on, but it was riddled with basic errors and failed to understand that Denel would be performing the upgrade and major servicing on four of the six aircraft.
While it’s always debatable whether work should be done locally or offshore for things like this, there are two major factors that must be taken into account:
First, Denel only has a single major servicing bay available, limiting the rate at which aircraft can be serviced until that capacity can be upgraded.
Second, Marshall has design and certification expertise that Denel does not have, and of course Marshall was the original prime integrator of the upgraded avionics system installed under Project Ebb in the early 2000s. On top of that, Denel is clearly still struggling to recover from the effects of state capture.
Most importantly however, is that the tender appears to have been issued by Armscor as part of a regular procurement process. In November 2021 Armscor issued a Request For Information (RFI) titled “SAAF C-130BZ ADS-B OUT Implementation, SFD Obsolescence Replacement and Aircraft Servicing”, which covered the upgrades and major servicing being partially done by Marshall now. It’s unclear exactly when the contract was awarded, but it was presumably part of the same RFI and then request for proposals (RFP).
So, why the need for the ADS-B Out upgrade, SFD replacement, and major servicing, and the relative urgency with which the SANDF is approaching this? The first reason is that an increasing number of countries, including at some point soon South Africa, are enforcing ADS-B Out mandates for aircraft operating in controlled airspace. The SAAF’s planners have been warning about this as a needed upgrade for the C-130BZ fleet for years, and now there really isn’t much time left.
The second reason is that the SFDs have obsolescence issues and replacing them should improve ease of maintenance and availability. That’s likely less urgent though.
The third reason, perhaps as important and urgent as the first, is that the SAAF has finally after many years managed to convince Cabinet and thus National Treasury to invest in a substantial effort to improve C-130BZ fleet availability and readiness, and past experience suggests that when that sort of opportunity arises you need to take advantage of it as fast as possible before the promised future funds disappear.
Time after time the SANDF has been promised that its acquisition budget would remain untouched for long enough to support a major acquisition, only to have future budgets slashed just as the opportunity arose to issue RFPs. Or, worse, sometimes budgets have been cut even after the contract has been awarded, putting already ongoing projects in jeopardy and raising the risk of penalties.
On top of that, using both Marshall and Denel maximises available servicing bays, as at present Denel has only a single bay that can accommodate a C-130BZ major service, although there’s a plan to increase that to two. Under current plans, 409 will still be undergoing its major service at Marshall when both 401 and 402 kick off their own major services at Denel in FY2025/26.
One immediate question that springs to mind is why the SAAF has opted to upgrade its aged C-130BZs, which are all around 60 years old, rather than acquiring newer aircraft. For instance, the US has reportedly offered the SAAF a number of ex-United States Air Force C-130Hs under the Excess Defence Articles process which might involve a reduced cost via a grant.
With the ex-USAF C-130Hs, it could still make sense to acquire two or more of them if the pricing is right and the budget can be made to match. However, apparently all were retired by the USAF before receiving the most recent digital cockpit upgrades meaning that they’d require a costly upgrade process before they could be brought into service. This process might be more expensive in the end than the cost of keeping the SAAF’s current C-130BZs flying for a few more years.
Of course that can’t last forever. At some point it will become impossible to keep the C-130BZs flying for any reasonable amount of money and then another big decision will have to made. But acquiring new aircraft is for now out of the question. New C-130Js, the most suitable direct replacements, are not available for less than around $180 million (R3.4 billion) to $200 million (R3.7 billion) apiece when acquired as part of a package including support, spares, and training.
It’s to be hoped, therefore, that this process gets many more years of life out of the SAAF’s C-130BZs. Because when they finally do have to retire, it’s not at all certain that the force can afford to replace them under current budget levels and trends.